Friday, December 25, 2009

What happens to oil company stocks in hyper-inflation scenario?

I realize this is difficult to fully predict in these times. But taking that Marc Faber will be correct and hyperinflation occurs in the US what generally happens to stock prices in oil companies such as BP Exxon and Royal Dutch Shell etc?





Is gold/silver etc the only protection or will assets be protected if in oil stocks? I would like to know now so I can make the adjustments if necessary.





Many thanksWhat happens to oil company stocks in hyper-inflation scenario?
Oil marketting only companies stocks will slow down.


Oil exploring and marketting company shares will be benefitted.What happens to oil company stocks in hyper-inflation scenario?
In the worst-case scenario of hyperinflation, a country's currency is rendered worthless; a trillion dollars wouldn't buy you a Coke. Uber-reporter Michael Lewis wrote an eye-opening account of the kinds of things he saw while visiting recent hyperinflation victim Iceland: an epidemic of people blowing up their Range Rovers for insurance money, hoarding food and foreign currency, and seriously contemplating emigrating from the country.


Stepping back from that dire possibility, a more conservative definition of hyperinflation is a doubling of prices over three years. For the century or so we've been keeping track, the U.S. hasn't come close.


In fact, we're spoiled, because we haven't seen a year with double-digit annual inflation in the last 25 years. However, we did experience it in the 1910's, the 1920's, the 1940's, the 1970's, and the early 1980's.
Marc Faber has been very accurate over the years in his prognostications.





I think oil stocks would underperform the underlying commodity price of oil in a truly hyperinflationary environment like Zimbabwe if such a scenario were to effect the USD. My thoughts is there likely would be selling pressure from desperate people trying to survive with living expenses and the companies likely would be reluctant to expand reserves given unknown costs.





I favor silver for the reason if hyperinflation took place I believe there is a probability the government would likely make it illegal to hold physical gold. I think accumulating pre 1982 pennies whose copper content is around 2 cents right now would be a safer investment to consider given it has this built in arbitrage value.
I would back off the hyperinflation worry a bit. Buy some gold and silver and put it in a safe deposit box but don't go overboard. EVERYBODY knows we are headed for hyperinflation. So why hasn't gold soared to $10,000 per ounce. When EVERYBODY knows something is inevitable and it isn't happening, that means it likely isn't going to happen. I think you should begin to consider that perhaps deflation is the correct scenario. The markets are probably heading back to the lows.
It will be protected in OIL Stocks as well other than Gold/Silver only ...





Regards,


http://www.dodjit.com

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